数值模型结构不确定性对模拟结果的影响分析

以内蒙古鄂托克旗为例,基于GMS中的MODFLOW模块构建了地下水流数值模拟模型,分析了模型结构(含水层厚度、参数分区)与模型参数不确定性因素对模拟结果的影响.研究结果表明:含水层不确定情景(含水层下边界概化为隔水底板平均值870 m)与实际情况水头差值绝对值的累计和最大为701 m,对模拟结果起了主控作用;当含水层下边界概化为910,940 m时,累计和分别增加为1 013,1 593 m;与仅考虑单个不确定性因素相比,同时考虑模型参数与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为738 m,同时考虑参数分区与含水层不确定情景累计和最大为791 m.因此,在构建地下水流数值模拟模型时,应优先考虑含水层空间结构概化的合理程度,同时考虑多个不确定性因素对模拟结果的综合影响,使地下水数值模拟模型能更精确地反映真实的地下水流状况.     

扬州市稻田高效种养模式应用现状及发展对策

近年来,扬州市根据国家农业供给侧结构性调整要求,充分利用自然资源禀赋,开展了多种形式稻田种养模式的示范与推广。本文阐述了扬州市稻鸭共作、稻虾共作以及稻田改作荷藕-虾共作等高效种养模式的应用现状,以单纯种稻为对照,比较了各种模式的生产效益;分析了稻田高效种养模式示范推广过程中存在的主要问题,并提出了促进稻田高效种养模式可持续发展的若干对策。     

王正非林火蔓延模型改进研究

王正非林火蔓延模型是目前国内比较先进的森林火灾蔓延模型,但是由于林火行为的复杂性,此模型在准确率和普适性方面仍存在许多不足。本文结合已有的成果进一步改进王正非模型,增加了可燃物湿度对林火蔓延速度的影响,改进了林火初始速度的计算方式。针对各种坡度对林火蔓延行为的影响给出了一个计算公式。与改进前相比,改进后的模型使其对林火蔓延情况的预估更为精准。     

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

全国水土保持功能年度价值评价研究

依据《中华人民共和国水土保持法释义》对水土保持功能的定义,分析了水土保持设施、地貌植被所发挥或蕴藏的有利于保护水土资源、防灾减灾、改善生态、促进社会进步等作用的内涵。在借鉴国内外先进经验和研究成果基础上,结合我国水土流失特点、水土保持现状,界定出水土保持功能价值概念。采用生态经济学计量方法,结合实际调研情况,分析各个指标之间的逻辑关系,建立了水土保持功能价值评价模型。按照国家水土保持区划一级分区,适当考虑二级分区和三级分区,以及全国水土流失动态监测站网分布概况,收集39个典型县(市、区)2016年度的土壤、水文、气象等观测资料,测算出其水土保持功能价值,进而推算至全类型区,再从8个水土保持一级分区的水土保持功能价值推算出2016年度全国水土保持功能价值,并在对测算结果进行分析讨论的基础上,对国家制定水土保持生态文明对策提出了建议。     

中国林产工业产业关联与波及效应分析——基于投入产出模型的国际比较

文中基于中国、美国、俄罗斯、印度、巴西、印度尼西亚6国2000—2014年投入产出数据，通过测算中间需求率、中间投入率、感应度系数和影响力系数，对林产工业产业关联与波及效应进行动态比较分析。研究结果表明:相较于其他国家，中国木材加工业、造纸业的中间产品型产业特征明显，对国民经济贡献程度较高，但同时也面临成为“瓶颈产业”的风险；中国家具制造业的最终需求型产业性质显著，受整体经济发展的拉动作用明显弱于其他国家。总体而言，中国林产工业对国民经济的推动作用整体上高于国民经济发展对其的拉动作用。需要重点提升木材加工业、家具制造业整体产业链竞争力，加大科研创新投入力度以提升产出效率，并进一步提高家具制造业整体产品的附加值。     

无源蓄冷控温运输箱设计与试验

针对蓄冷运输箱信息化程度低、控温时间短、控温困难等问题,设计了一款集控温、远程监控、定位、故障诊断等功能于一体的蓄冷运输箱。以脐橙为试验对象,结合能耗模型,对蓄冷控温箱控温性能进行了研究。结果表明,箱内各截面温度不均匀系数分别为0.38、0.47、0.78,温度极差最大值为2.8℃,均匀性较好;当蓄冷剂用量为180 kg,预冷脐橙660 kg,在外部环境平均温度26.39℃的条件下,总控温时长为122 h,风机共执行控温21次,且随着蓄冷量减少,风机开启控温所用时间呈指数上升趋势,决定系数不小于0.928 0;结合能耗模型分析得出,该箱体在广州夏季高温环境下可控温5 d以上,能够满足远距离运输要求。     

Regional inequality: An analysis under the core–peripheral model

Desmet, Gumpert, and Ort?n have analyzed regional development using the Ricardian model or the Heckscher–Ohlin theorem. However, aspects such as consideration of combined wages, substitution elasticities, marginal costs, fixed costs, and number of companies were completely ignored. This study investigates the underdevelopment of regions in light of Krugman`s core–peripheral model. The extension of the model is intended to analyze the aspects that have so far been ignored and their influence on the benefits of the two regions. The following aspects characterize the model. Two regions with two sectors are considered for the model. The regions are characterized by different technological equipment. The first region is industrial. The second region has an agricultural character. When a new technology is available, both regions can benefit under certain conditions. The financial transfers lead to a convergence of wages.     

基于Landsat和MODIS数据融合的农牧区NPP模拟

天山北坡是中国重要的农牧业发展基地,利用遥感数据准确获取植被净初级生产力(Net primary productivity,NPP)的时空信息,对于合理分配农牧业草地资源具有重要意义。由于受到天气影响及卫星传感器受到时间分辨率和空间分辨率的限制,获取既具有中空间分辨率、又具有高时间分辨率的遥感数据比较困难。本文基于中空间分辨率Landsat 8 OLI数据与高时间分辨率MODIS数据,采用遥感数据时空融合STARFM算法,获取中空间分辨率和高时间分辨率序列的遥感数据,以天山北坡中段区域为实验区,结合CASA模型,对区域内植被NPP进行模拟。结果表明,2016年内8个时期,融合后的NDVI数据与对应时刻的Landsat 8 OLI NDVI数据的相关系数不小于0.759,偏差在0.006 2～0.009 4之间,均方根误差在0.074～0.135之间;利用融合数据与CASA模型协同模拟的NPP具有良好的空间细节信息,NPP模拟值与野外实测值决定系数R~2为0.860 1,表明两者具有较好的相关性。本研究为多源遥感影像融合技术与光能利用率模型协同模拟NPP提供了新的思路。